This op-ed was written on February 6 and submitted to the Orient prior to the February 28, 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

As many of you have seen in the news, the Islamic Republic has massacred thousands of innocent Iranians, with estimates ranging from 6,000 to 30,000, in a very short period of time, to suppress protests across cities and towns throughout Iran.

There is nothing in this piece that will be new to Iranians or to those who closely follow Iranian politics. I am writing it for dear friends who kindly contacted me, asked how I am doing and wanted to understand how I feel about the recent events in Iran.

This time is different.

The Islamic Republic’s violence is not new, nor is this the first time it has deliberately killed innocent people in the streets. What is different is the nature of the protests, including their scale, geographic breadth, the severity of the moment, the political awakening of Iranians and the response of the international community. This is why I believe this time is different.

There is no path back to “normal” for the Islamic Republic 

The Islamic Republic has repeatedly promoted regime-sanctioned reformist movements to simulate political pluralism and project an appearance of normalcy. These efforts aim to create the appearance of legitimacy while concealing the reality of a murderous Islamic theocracy. If you doubt it, ask Iranian women. Within my lifetime, I have witnessed three such movements under Mohammad Khatami, Hassan Rouhani and Masoud Pezeshkian.

This façade of reform repeatedly created the illusion of normalcy for both citizens and the international community. We remember Khatami and his “Dialogue Among Civilizations,” and Rouhani and Zarif with their charming smiles, Western PhD degrees and diplomatic language. These illusions persuaded some Iranians to participate in elections, providing the regime with turnout numbers it could present as evidence of legitimacy and normalcy to domestic and international audiences.

At one point, I was among those who believed this illusion of reform was real. Yet each of these movements ultimately led to greater repression and the repeated killing of innocent Iranians, including many who genuinely believed in change.

The scale and severity of the recent wave of killings, in which thousands of Iranians were murdered in less than a week, finally exposed the Islamic Republic’s true nature. These crimes occurred under a so-called reformist government.

The Islamic Republic is incapable of reform, and the idea that normalcy could be achieved through these fake reforms is no longer believable.

Real problems worsen and remain unsolved 

The economic situation in Iran is dire and continues to worsen. Iranians are dealing with rampant inflation and a rapidly shrinking economy. Just a few months before the protests, a movement known as the “empty fridge” campaign emerged, where citizens recorded the contents of their nearly empty refrigerators and shared the videos on social media to show the reality of daily life.

Earlier that same year, Iranians faced severe water and electricity shortages, a problem that continues to threaten the country and is likely to recur. Despite sitting on vast energy resources, the country experienced widespread power outages caused entirely by mismanagement and corruption. Without these problems being resolved, more protests and uprisings should be expected in the near future.

The Islamic Republic has shown itself incapable of governance or solving any real problem.

Death of thousands, birth of real priorities

The recent protests broke out across Iran, from small towns to big cities. Their geographic breadth was even surprising to those of us outside the country who had witnessed previous protests. You can imagine how shocked the Islamic Republic must have been. In many towns and cities, protesters came close to occupying government buildings. At one point, those of us watching from abroad asked ourselves: had a revolution already begun? In response, the Islamic Republic began deliberately and indiscriminately killing protesters across Iran, including children. The scale of this massacre has been so vast and horrifying that one of the messages coming out of Iran is: “Everyone knows someone who lost a loved one.”

The message was clear to everyone: the Islamic Republic is willing to kill anyone, including children, to stay in power. As a result, Iranians inside and outside the country are redefining what truly matters: ending the massacre of innocent Iranians.

The priority is unmistakably clear: stopping the Islamic Republic’s machinery of murder.

Emergence of Reza Pahlavi as a viable opposition leader

The Islamic Republic systematically destroyed any attempts at real reform in their infancy, using disinformation, propaganda and a climate of terror both inside and outside Iran. Yet through years of consistent effort and clear messaging, Reza Pahlavi emerged unscathed.

Pahlavi is the son of Iran’s last king, who was deposed in the 1979 revolution. While his family name carries substantial historical baggage, my understanding is that nearly 50 years of economic failure, environmental degradation and brutal state violence under the Islamic Republic have led many Iranians to reassess the Pahlavi era retrospectively.

It is difficult to ignore the growing number of Iranians, both inside and outside the country, chanting his name and demanding his return. With this support and the legitimacy it provides, he can represent and negotiate on their behalf with the international community, an element that was crucially missing in previous uprisings.

Pahlavi can be a crucial figure in paving the way to a democratic Iran where life is sacred, liberty is sanctified, and the pursuit of happiness is an inalienable right.

The Islamic Republic must go: Growing global consensus 

As I write this, the United States is increasing its military presence in the region. The European Union has added the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to its list of terrorist organizations. Together, these developments signal a shift that is now being articulated openly by senior Western leaders. For instance, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently said that the Islamic Republic appears to be in its “final days and weeks.” The world is increasingly recognizing the Islamic Republic and the IRGC for what they are: major agents of domestic and international terrorism using methods as brutal and archaic as those of the darkest periods of history.

Isolation is deepening, resources are drying up, and the Islamic Republic’s capacity to terrorize Iranians and export violence will rapidly erode.

For these reasons, I think this time is different. To my friends who care about peace and prosperity, a free and democratic Iran will bring life and freedom to its people. With its considerable human capital and rich resources, Iran can bring prosperity and peace to the region and, consequently, to the world.

Mahdi Ebrahimi Kahou is an assistant professor of economics.