At this time a year ago, I wrote a column predicting that the Chicago Bears would beat the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLI. I assessed both teams' strengths and weaknesses, determined the X-factors, and attempted to spice it up with a couple of anecdotes from my youth that may or may not have gone over successfully. I tried my best to bring the many inexorable truths about each squad to light, yet even as I'm reading that very column again a year later, I still have no idea as to why I picked Da Bears to win. Take this excerpt for example:
"Before anyone even thought about this match-up, the obvious choice to win was the Colts, and all signs appear to indicate that this just might be Peyton Manning's year, especially after getting that gigantic New England monkey off his back two weeks ago." Stop right there, Chris! That was perfect! Yes, it will be Peyton Manning's year! He will prevail! He will win the Super Bowl! Stop before you hurt yourself, Chris! I didn't stop. "But if the old adage 'defense wins championships' holds true, then the pick has got to be the Bears." F--- you, Chris.
Seriously though, what ever could have possessed me to pick the Chicago Bears? What made it worse was that the article was entitled: Super Bowl XLI: Rex Grossman will carry the Bears. Grossman? Carry? Bears? The? Was I just totally insane?
Of course not. You see, when making a prediction for something as big as the Super Bowl, it is inevitable that your mind will play tricks on you. When your brain first registers the epic match-up, it will immediately determine the winner based on your initial gut instinct. As was the case two weeks ago when Tom Brady hoisted the AFC Championship trophy yet again (was that Philip Rivers heckling in the background?) to improve their undefeated record to an impeccable 18-0: The choice was easy, even before the Giants took on the Packers in the NFC title game.
And while it may have been a slightly more difficult task to pick a winner had Green Bay toppled New York, with the loveable and ageless Brett Favre making his much anticipated return to the Super Bowl, only to square off against the same team he had defeated there in his last trip, which just happens to be unbeaten, there was absolutely no question with New England versus New York...at least initially.
But then, just like last year, the voices inside me began to fire back and forth at one another...one arguing for the Pats, the other, for the Giants; and while all Voice One had to chant was "Belichick" to convince me, Voice Two?for whatever reason?made a more compelling argument: "The New York Giants will win Super Bowl XLII." I know what you're thinking: Eli Manning? Against Tom Brady? Come on now; be realistic. The truth? I am being realistic, and so is my client (Voice Two).
The Giants will never admit that they came into this season with low expectations. After barely making the playoffs last year on the final game of the season at 8-8, New York lost to Jeff Garcia and the Eagles in the first round of the postseason, and then saw their marquee running back Tiki Barber hang it up for good at age 31. Shortly after that, Giants fans unleashed another cacophony of moans when the team announced that they had signed the unpopular and implacable disciplinarian, Head Coach Tom Coughlin, to a one-year extension?the exact opposite of what most fans were hoping would happen to the former Jaguars' boss.
What was worse, they would have to deal with an electric Cowboys team led by a more experienced Tony Romo, a strong Redskins club, and the rival Eagles, all in the same division?each of whom finished at .500 or better this season, and two of whom made the postseason. It's safe to say that Giants' fans, with their lack of a dominant running game, mixed with the normally inconsistent play from their quarterback and a volatile head coach, could foresee that their upcoming season would once again end in disappointment.
This feeling was only perpetuated when they dropped the first two games of the season to Dallas and Green Bay, until all of a sudden, the Giants decided to do something that no other team has done in NFL history: win 10 straight games...on the road. Ten straight road wins! That's two more road wins than Matt Millen has seen in seven full seasons as Lions president?it's unheard of.
The Giants squeaked into the playoffs only to face Jeff Garcia yet again, only this time with the Buccaneers in Tampa. Surely, Coughlin & Co. would repeat history. But Eli Manning didn't screw anything up and New York somehow won 24-14. Then it was on to Dallas to square off against the Romo-Simpsons, a team that had defeated them twice during the regular season.
And again, Eli Manning didn't screw anything up, Romo was intercepted by R.W. McQuarters in the end zone on the final play of the season, and the Giants somehow won again, 21-17. And afterwards, the Giants even managed to make Terrell Owens cry in front of the media. (Can't you just see the Coors Light fake press conference commercials now? Coors Light guys: Hey T.O.! How would you best describe Coors light?! T.O. [holding back tears]: That's my teammate. Coors Light guys: I can't believe you're crying over that. I think we're going to have to take your sunglasses. T.O. [crying]: If you guys do that, that's really unfair.)
Finally, it was north to Green Bay, where New York would surely collapse in the subzero temperatures at Lambeau Field against the Packers. But again, Eli Manning didn't screw anything up (neither did Lawrence Tynes!), and Brett Favre did, as New York advanced to Super Bowl XLII after what was perhaps the game of the season in one of the most improbable playoff runs in NFL history. It's amazing Tom Coughlin still has his face, too, by the way.
The Giants come into Sunday ranked outside the top five (of all 12 playoff teams) in total offense (eighth), passing (10th), and points per game (seventh), which does not bode well against New England. I, like a few others (maybe one) on this campus, am a believer of the Adams-Wall-New-England theory that in order to defeat the 2007 Patriots, your team cannot make any mistakes on offense.
That is to say, your team must score a touchdown on every single drive. Now obviously, this feat is virtually impossible...that is unless you are the 2007 New England Patriots, which is exactly why your offense needs to do more than just answer the bell. In all seriousness though, looking back to this year's AFC title game, the Chargers had four solid drives that resulted in four field goals. Sure, they didn't score on every single drive, but they also didn't make the most of every drive. Just think if they had put all four of those drives in for touchdowns?heck, even three would have tied the score.
Eli Manning has been flawless thus far in the postseason with a 62.4 completion percentage, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. And the good news for Giants fans is that this Patriots defense, unlike those from past championship teams, is not nearly as fast, exuberant, or scary?you can definitely score on it. Which is why the real x-factor here is going to be the Giants' defense, more specifically its front four.
New York's total defense ranks fifth in the postseason, surrendering only 17 points per game and just 206.7 yards per game through the air. What's even more surprising is that its lethal defensive line that consists of Michael Strahan, Barry Cofield, Fred Robbins, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck has just three total sacks in the playoffs. In other words: They're due. They will ultimately be the key to New York's success on Sunday.
If they can rush Tom Brady effectively, and force him to make some bad decisions?which he is actually capable of as evidenced in the San Diego game?the G-men will have a good chance of walking out of Arizona as Super Bowl XLII champions. Plus, the Giants have already seen the Patriots this season...and almost won. They'll know better this time around.
Last year before the big game a little part of me thought that the Chicago Bears would win the Super Bowl. So I wrote a column about why they would. And this year before the big game a little part of me thinks that the New York Giants will win the Super Bowl. You know what they say: Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice...strike three; I won't get fooled again.
Patriots 30, Giants 24
MVP: Donte' Stallworth, WR, New England Patriots.
That's all there is. Thanks for stopping by. I'm off to see "The Sting" starring Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler. Until next time...