As the Patriots continue to tally off impressive wins, the Bruins maintain their spot in the playoff picture. The Red Sox aggressively pursue free agent Jon Lester and the Celtics have been playing—is anybody even watching anymore? Boston’s least relevant team has stumbled out of the gate thus far and looks poised for another lackluster campaign.
With a 4-6 record at this early stage of the season, the Celtics are a half game out of the playoffs in the pathetically weak eastern conference. Celtics fans are facing a befuddling predicament with their mediocre rebuilding team: root for the Celtics to sneak into the playoffs with a low seed, or hope that they deliberately underperform and get a high draft pick?
It should be painful for any dedicated fan to wish ill for his or her team—ask a fan of the blatantly tanking 0-11 Philadelphia 76ers, if there are any fans left. But in the drastically unequal NBA, in which acquiring one or two of the league’s few superstars can alter the fate of a franchise, tanking can be an effective strategy.
The teams that finish with the worst record have the highest chance of getting a top draft pick through the NBA draft lottery. Some players have emerged from the draft and immediately turned teams around, such as Kevin Durant on the Sonics/Thunder and Lebron James on the Cavaliers (his first time).
However, because the lottery system only gives the worst team a 25% percent chance at the top pick, even the most talented tankers could miss out on their coveted draft prospects. Again, ask the 76ers, who ended up with the 3rd pick last year despite their best efforts to be horrible.
Furthermore, there are very few “sure thing” prospects like Durant and Lebron and many players selected later in the draft turn out to have better careers. ESPN’s Bill Simmons re-ranked the players of the 2011 draft based on their first three years in the NBA, and these are the original draft positions of his top five: 15, 1, 11, 38, 22.
The moral of the story: the draft is an utter toss-up. Thus, the Celtics should pursue other rebuilding options with gusto. Besides, there’s no chance they out-tank the 76ers, who lost by 53 points last Thursday.
Some argue that the Celtics would have a better chance in the draft lottery if they traded Rajon Rondo, the mercurial-star point guard who may leave this summer in free agency anyway. But with a solid young core of Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger and Marcus Smart, I’m not convinced the Celtics would finish any worse than they did last year when they got the No. 6 pick in the draft. Trading Rondo, who is almost averaging a triple double this season, will only delay the rebuilding process.
Instead, the Celtics should make every effort to resign Rondo, as the assist-machine can entice talented 2015 free agents like LaMarcus Aldridge and Marc Gasol. A playoff appearance this season, even a 7 or 8 seed, would also make Boston a more appealing free agent destination.
Free agency in the NBA is an unfair system. The warm weather beaches of Miami and LA and the big-city lights of Chicago and New York are inherently more alluring for players than snow-covered mid-size cities like Minneapolis or Milwaukee. But unlike other relatively small, cold weather cities, Boston has tradition on its side.
The Celtics are the most celebrated team in NBA history, with 17 championships and a legion of hall of famers that includes Bill Russell and Larry Bird. Who wouldn’t want the opportunity to add their name to this list and their number to the crowded TD Garden rafters?
Thus, Celtics fans do not have to choose between rooting for an 8-seed this year and hoping for a championship in three years. There’s no point in tanking for the draft, as they could just as easily get a star with the No. 15 pick as the No. 1 pick–reigning NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard was the No. 15 pick in 2011. With a playoff run this year, Rondo would be more likely to resign, other free agents would be more tempted to join him and the young Celtics players would gain some crucial playoff experience.
Let the 76ers try their luck in the draft—I’d rather see the Celtics take on Lebron and the heavily favored Cavaliers in the playoffs.