During the 2014 election season in Maine, one of the most oft-repeated messages from the Maine Democratic Party was that Eliot Cutler, an independent candidate in the state’s gubernatorial race, was only siphoning liberal votes away from Representative Mike Michaud, the Democratic candidate. 

That position seemed to be validated on November 4, at least in the minds of many die-hard Democrats: Michaud lost his race in a blue(ish) state against a Republican rival who, just as in 2010, won with less than 50 percent of the vote. 

Unfortunately, this excuse for electoral failure does not stand up to examination, and Democrats should instead look inward to explain just how Maine got stuck with another four years under Governor Paul LePage.

First, let’s think about the pure results. Somehow, incredibly, one of the least popular governors in the United States was re-elected with more than a ten percentage point improvement over his 2010 performance. 

In 2010, LePage received 38 percent of the vote and won by under two points, defeating Cutler. In 2014, with an underwater approval rating, LePage received over 48 percent of the vote, topping Michaud by five points and falling just shy of a majority in the three-way race. 
Not only failing to defeat such a vulnerable candidate, but also seeing him win by a wider margin than before is simply embarrassing.

This campaign cycle, the most common question I was asked was “How could you support Eliot Cutler when he’s just taking votes away from Mike Michaud? Do you want LePage to win?” 

My answer? Easily—because he wasn’t, and because Michaud couldn’t have won even with Cutler out of the race. Polls asked Cutler supporters who they would vote for in a head-to-head race between Michaud and LePage, and the results varied greatly. 

Even the most Michaud-friendly poll I found showed just over a 2:1 advantage for Michaud among Cutler’s supporters, far less than would have been required for Michaud to seal the deal. In fact, if all of Cutler’s voters had gone to the polls without his name on the ballot, about 80 percent would have had to cast their ballots for Michaud to make up for his 30,000-vote deficit.

The fact is that in this most recent campaign, Michaud wasn’t the best candidate for the job. Given that a significant part of his campaign was dedicated to telling Cutler supporters to vote for him because Cutler couldn’t win, I’m not entirely convinced that Michaud thought Michaud was the best candidate for the job. 

Unfortunately, the biggest blunder of the entire campaign came before it even started: when Eliot Cutler declined to run as a Democrat. Clearly, he had reasons for not doing so: namely, he’s not a Democrat, and did not want to be beholden in any way to the Democratic Party while in the Blaine House. 

However, it’s fairly clear that if he ran as a Democrat, he would now be the governor-elect of Maine. Pollsters consistently found that in a Cutler-LePage race, Cutler would steamroll LePage. 

That miscalculation, whether intentional or not, cost him the governorship and cost the people of Maine a governor who wouldn’t punctuate his political attacks with rape jokes.
Michaud is an incredibly run-of-the-mill Democrat who sought office in a state that tends to be unreceptive to that type of candidate. 

He’s a nice guy; he has populist positions; he’s socially liberal, and he wants to increase the minimum wage. Boring. He brought very little to the table that signaled an active improvement in policy. 

Maine seemed to be full of people who really wanted Cutler, perhaps convinced by his property tax plan or his ideas for the economic rejuvenation of Maine’s mill towns or his unwavering support of reproductive rights. 

But they ended up supporting Michaud because they believed the Democratic narrative that Cutler, running outside the two-party system, couldn’t win.

Looking at Maine’s electoral history, it is clear what brand of leader Mainers usually elect. Successful and remembered Maine politicians tend to be those that can reach out to both sides of an argument, develop real ideas and work across party lines to reach a mutually agreeable conclusion. Leaders like former senators George Mitchell and Olympia Snowe, Angus King and Susan Collins come to mind. It is a pity that we will not now be able to add Eliot Cutler to that list.