Open up a Boston sports page, turn a dial to sports talk radio, or flip on ESPN and you will likely hear the same triumphant message: “The Patriots are the best team in the NFL, destined for the Super Bowl.”
The Boston Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy wrote on Monday that “the road to Super Bowl XLIX” would go through Foxboro. ESPN, NFL.com and Bleacher Report all moved the Patriots to the top of their hallowed Power Rankings.
Yes, the Patriots beat the Broncos handily on Sunday by a score of 43-21. But take it easy, fellow Pats fans—it’s only November. Last year, the Patriots completed an amazing 24-point comeback against the Broncos in November, only to lose in the AFC Championship Game two months later. Fans are pointing to Tom Brady’s 11-5 overall head-to-head record against Peyton Manning. But in the playoffs, it’s an even 2-2 split. Don’t book tickets to Arizona for the Super Bowl just yet.
One undeniably positive takeaway from Sunday’s game: Rob Gronkowski is back to full strength. A 6-6, 265-pound tight end with the ability to run a 4.6 40-yard dash, Gronk is nearly impossible to stop when healthy. However, the Pats cannot take Gronk’s health for granted, as he has been unable to play at full strength in the past three postseasons. In order to beat the Broncos again in January, the Patriots will need the big fella healthy.
Gronk is not the only injury concern for the Pats. Linebacker Jerod Mayo, a captain and key piece of the run defense, is out for the year. Chandler Jones, the Pats’ best pass rusher, is battling a hip injury and has missed the past two games.
Starting running back Stevan Ridley is also gone for the year, limiting the Patriots’ ability to run the ball, making the pats emphasise, and allowing opponents to focus on, the passing game.
Luckily, the Patriots have Brady at the helm of the offense, but astute defensive coordinators have found ways to shut down Brady and the one-dimensional Pats offense in recent years (see Super Bowls XLII and XLVI).
Furthermore, one cannot forget that a mere five weeks ago, pundits around the world were proclaiming the end of Tom Brady and the Patriots, after the Chiefs thrashed them 41-14. Tom Brady has made those experts look foolish in the past five games, leading the team to five straight wins while tossing 18 touchdowns and just one interception. Nevertheless, those shaky early season performances demonstrated the flaws in the Pats roster.
The Patriots’ defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game with 120, and they have conceded over 150 yards in two of three games since losing Jerod Mayo. The offensive line has improved, allowing only five sacks in the last five games after conceding nine in the first four games.
However, this is still a relatively unproven unit, finding its identity after the preseason trade of captain Logan Mankins and retirement of long-time coach Dante Scarnecchia. The Patriots will be tested in their final seven games by five of the top ten pass-rushing defenses in the NFL: Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Indianapolis and the Jets. Furthermore, they will face legitimate playoff contenders in six of those seven games, making for a bumpy road to January.
Sports fans, especially Boston fans, are notoriously fickle. Five weeks after Doomsday declarations about the demise of the Brady Era, they are ready to polish the Duck Boats for a Post-Super Bowl parade.
I’m cautiously optimistic that a Super Bowl could be in this team’s future, especially if Gronk and Brady stay healthy and the offensive line continues to improve. However, good or great Patriots teams have fallen short in their last eight playoff appearances. The 2007 season, in which the Pats took an 18-0 record into the Super Bowl and lost, illustrated that regular season greatness is irrelevant in January and February. It takes a rare combination of talent, luck, and character to win a Super Bowl in the wildly unpredictable NFL. Power Rankings are fun, but Pats fans should stay focused on the real prize.