If you regularly check any news outlets or have an overprotective mother, you’ve probably heard of the polar vortex. It sounds like something straight out of a B-horror movie and it’s been making life miserable for people all over North America this winter, so the media circus surrounding it doesn’t come as a surprise. 

So what is it, exactly? The polar vortex—basically just an air current that flows around the pole—is always there, but we only hear about it on the news when it’s acting wonky in a way that negatively affects us. The polar vortex goes through phases and has two extreme states, which represent the ends of a continuum known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). 

The descent of the polar vortex into North America this winter can be partially blamed on a negative phase of the AO. During negative phases, the polar jet stream current that wraps around the northern hemisphere gets weaker, allowing cold air to escape from the Arctic and bring freezing weather down to lower latitudes. 

Conversely, during the positive phase of the AO, the strong polar jet stream current acts as a physical block that keeps cold air locked up in the polar region. This allows for warmer winters south of the poles. The AO also affects the extent of sea ice in the Arctic—our current negative phase is presumed to be contributing to the recent record lows in Arctic sea ice coverage.

During negative phases of the AO, the polar jet stream typically moves further south. This year, it’s only been slightly negative and hasn’t moved drastically southward, but rather has begun to dip up and down like a roller coaster. That’s why this winter brought extreme cold weather to the lower 48 states while Alaska, Russia and Europe were spared: unlike them, we happened to be trapped under a little trough of the polar jet stream current.

So if this is just a phase, you might ask  if we should just wait it out until the cold passes, burn our winter coats, and skip merrily off into an eternal summer? That attitude is exaggerated, but isn’t completely unreasonable: during positive AO phases, like the one that lasted from the 1970s to the mid-1990s, winters in the eastern U.S. are warmer than average. We still experience winters during those phases, however, so don’t throw out those Bean Boots any time soon.

Need another reason to hold onto your ugly sweaters? Ongoing research hints at the possibility that, thanks to anthropogenic climate change, newly warming Arctic air masses could alter air circulation patterns and permanently weaken the polar jet stream. This would make extremely cold winters common in North America and Europe, much like the harsher conditions of a negative phase of the AO. New research from NOAA indicates that this year’s jet stream current was weak enough to allow the polar vortex to break apart into little mini-vortexes, one of which meandered southward and brought -40°F temperatures to the Midwestern United States.

According to NOAA’s records, this pattern of polar vortex breakup has occurred much more frequently in recent years than it did before the 90s. This discovery has led some researchers to suspect that climate change might be ushering in a new era of super-cold winters, ones that even a giant ice wall probably couldn’t keep out—although we’ll be spared White Walkers.

So next time someone asks you how global warming could possibly be happening if it’s so cold outside, just tell them: the earth is still warming, but winter is coming.