With the unexpected resignation of Pope Benedict XVI the new papal conclave has already become a media circus, the center of speculation, “expert analysis,” and even the predictions of gambling houses worldwide. For Catholics, it is a time of deep uncertainty and excitement.
The same questions will inevitably arise at both Sunday family dinners and the quiet circles of the Vatican.
Should the church look for a pope from Africa or Latin America, who can speak to the growing number of faithful there and address their concerns over poverty and global inequality? Or must the church seek a leader from Europe or the United States, who can spearhead the “New Evangelization” to revive Catholicism in increasingly secular countries?
Does the church need a strong, firm papacy or one that respects more the collegial leadership of bishops and the laity?
Do we need a pope who is equal parts administrator, intellectual heavyweight or charismatic pastor? Is it possible to have all three?
In what follows, I consider the five major “candidates” for the papacy. Keep in mind that these are not formal candidates; canon law strictly forbids campaigning or ambitious wrangling on the part of individual cardinals.
That said, these church leaders have been identified by their peers, Vatican observers and bookies as those with a significant chance of being elected given their personality, leadership and history.
Be prepared for surprises and keep in mind that for Catholics, the papal election, held in secret and complete isolation in the Sistine Chapel is not merely an exercise in church politics but also an act of the Holy Spirit.
Either of the first two candidates would be a bold choice for the papacy.
The first candidate is Cardinal Peter Tushkon. This choice would be a radical but exciting one for the church. Peter Tushkon is a charismatic, bright, fairly young cardinal from Ghana, who is only 64 years old.
As head of the pontifical commission for peace and justice, Peter Tushkon’s passion for social justice certainly speaks to the aspirations of African and Latin American Catholics.
According to Rev. Domelevo, “Cardinal Tushkon is a wonderful person, very down to earth and humble...He is excellent at communicating scripture in a way that people really understand...[he uses] jokes and humor to really portray messages to people. He has that human touch.”
That said, Tushkon’s strong opposition to gay rights, including sympathy for laws that criminalize homosexuality in African nations, may compromise his nomination.
Tushkon’s age and force of character, however, would signal a long, highly influential papacy in the mold of John Paul II, and it is uncertain if the College of Cardinals is ready for such a decision.
The second candidate is Cardinal Odio Scherer. With 42 percent of Catholics living in Latin America, is it time that the church turned to a leader from such a passionate, faithful core?
Cardinal Scherer is the Archbishop of São Paulo, one of the world’s largest dioceses, with six million members, in the world’s most Catholic country. Considered a theological “moderate,” Scherer voices sympathy for liberation theology, a Catholic movement popular in Latin America but criticized by Benedict XVI for its Marxist leanings.
Scherer is one among several possibilities from Latin America, including Leonardo Sandri from Argentina and Oscar Maradiaga from Honduras.
Any of the next candidates would be considered “safe picks” for the Vatican.
Cardinal Angelo Scola, Archbishop of Milan, is seen as the leading European candidate.
Scola’s rigorous intellect, openness to dialogue, and ability to bring the church to the modern world would continue Benedict XVI’s goal of reviving the Catholic faith in Europe.
Scola is the founder of the Oasis Project, an organization that promotes dialogue and work for peace between Catholic and Muslim communities.
Cardinal Christoph Schönborn of Vienna fits a similar mold.
Cardinal Francis Arinze, the Cardinal of Nigeria, brings over 45 years of experience as a bishop. Arinze was mentioned as a possibility at the 2005 conclave after the passing of John Paul II. He is widely praised for his leadership during several humanitarian crises in his home country.
At 80 years old, Arinze’s age may work both for and against him, depending on if the cardinals are looking for a transitional leader or a more permanent pontificate.
My personal prediction is Cardinal Marc Ouellet, who was formerly the Archbishop of Quebec and currently is in several high-ranking Vatican positions, including overseeing the selection of bishops.
Ouellet is similar to the current pope in both personality and theology, and fought similar battles in French Canada over secularism, abortion and marriage.
Ouellet also did missionary work in Latin America for several years and brings geographical balance, administrative experience and an orthodox vision of the church and Vatican II to the papacy.
Although Ouellet has expressed misgivings about holding the papacy in the past, I expect the world may soon have its first Canadian pope.
David Jimenez is a member of the Class of 2016.