GOP threatened by conservative division

The Cold, Hardt, Truth: Romney should risk speaking his mind

From the outset of this campaign season, Republican presidential hopefuls have sought to capture support from the disgruntled Republican base. Mitt Romney appears to have adopted the strategy of hiding his true values and opinions in an effort to appease the GOP base, but his time would be better spent making the case for a new direction for the Republican Party.

The Cold, Hardt, Truth: It’s time to share your love of Bowdoin with prospective students

During the past two weeks the College has apparently taken it upon itself to remind graduating seniors that in about a month we will no longer be students at Bowdoin College. From the letters in our mailboxes asking us how to pronounce our names at graduation to the emails asking us to request our cap and gowns and the bittersweet reminders that in a few months we won't have access to the soon-to-be-defunct Bearings, Bowdoin seems intent on waking us up from the dream that we'll always be college students. On behalf of the Class of 2012, we get it.

The Cold, Hardt, Truth

GOP threatened by conservative division

This piece represents the opinion of the author:

Craig Hardt

Columnist

March 2, 2012

The race for the Republican nomination has intensified in recent weeks, but it doesn't look like the GOP is moving any closer to the finish line. With each passing election, it's becoming increasingly clear that there is no candidate in the Republican field that can appeal to all the major voting blocs that make up the party's base. And this is a big problem for Republicans.

If the Republican nominee is to have any hope of ousting President Obama from the White House this fall, he will need to get Republican voters out to the polls in large numbers. In 2008, President Obama was able to win the hotly contested race for the Democratic nomination because he could count on a large turnout of generally unreliable young voters and stronger than usual support from minorities.

With the Romney, Santorum and Gingrich campaigns locked in a race to move as far right of center as possible, it's hard to imagine a situation in which the Republican nominee could garner enough support from a wider demographic in the general election. Whoever emerges victorious from the nomination race must win over traditionally conservative states. This may be difficult because, as the campaign moves on, Republicans are becoming more firmly entrenched in their politics and attached to their chosen candidate, whether that be Gingrich, Santorum or Romney.

The candidates have gone to great lengths to demonstrate how different they are, which has only encouraged more deeply rooted division among GOP supporters. When Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama went head to head for the Democratic Party nomination in 2008, their focus was on highlighting different personal attributes, not championing different policies, which made it easier for Clinton supporters to accept Obama as their candidate in November.

Perhaps the very real threat of another four years without executive power will galvanize Republican support for whoever emerges as the GOP candidate this fall. As previous elections have taught us, people often vote against a candidate more readily than they vote for one.

But the challenge the Republicans face is finding a way to do more than just consolidate Republican support: they must find a way to attract moderate and independent voters.

In 2008, President Obama won independent voters by an 8-point margin and the general election by seven points. In 2004, John Kerry won the independent vote by a point, though he lost the popular vote by three points. In 2000, Bush won the independent vote by a 2-point margin, though he lost the popular vote. Still, the trend here is clear; in order to win the presidency a candidate must win among independent voters, or at least come very close.

In 2008, independents constituted almost 30 percent of the electorate. Assuming a similar number of independents vote in the election this fall, the current 9-point deficit that Romney faces among that key constituency could cripple any chance of a Republican victory in November. And if Romney is the most "electable" candidate in the GOP field, then Gingrich and Santorum probably won't fare much better.

While polling data in February of an election year is rarely indicative of what's to come in November, it's clear that the Republican nominee will have to work hard in the coming months to narrow the divide between independent voters and the Republican Party.

Prior to last week's Republican primary in Michigan, the state was considered a key battleground in the general election. After hearing firsthand what Romney and Santorum have to offer, Michigan voters appear more and more likely to choose a Democrat in November.

Romney, whose opposition to the motor industry bailout in Detroit cost him support in Michigan, tried to convince people that he can understand their struggles. Trying to demonstrate his affinity for Detroit-made cars, Romney instead perpetuated the belief that he is out of touch with Americans facing economic hardship by casually saying he drives both a Mustang and a Chevy, while his wife owns two Cadillacs.

Santorum, whose value-based campaign has helped him surge into a narrow lead over Romney in some national polls, has spent so much time talking about his beliefs on the separation of the church and state that voters were left wondering if he had any idea that the unemployment rate in Michigan was over 9 percent.

In their struggle to connect with Republican voters, Romney and Santorum have lost sight of the ultimate goal of winning the presidency. By the time the GOP has figured out who will be the Party's standard-bearer this November, it may be too late to shift its message to appeal to more moderate Americans.

Republicans should hope for consensus sooner rather than later; the longer it takes, the more likely it is that they will face four more years of a Democratic presidency. For the rest of us, maybe that's not such a bad thing.

Craig Hardt is a member of the Class of 2012.

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