A new poll suggests a dead heat in this cold state's race for governor. Data released Wednesday shows 30 percent of likely voters supporting Democrat Libby Mitchell and 29 percent supporting Republican Paul LePage. These numbers come just 10 days after a poll that had put LePage at a 13-point advantage and is welcome news for Democrats, with only one month left until the November 2 elections.
All polling data was generated by Critical Insights of Portland, Maine. The poll size was relatively small—405 likely voters were polled.
Trading places
The exact reason for the leftward shift remains unclear.
Though the new data had not yet been made public during the Orient's Wednesday afternoon interview with Professor of Government Christian Potholm, he correctly predicted: "It's going to be much closer this weekend."
Democrats "are beginning to see that a vote for [Independent candidate Eliot] Cutler is a vote for LePage," he said.
Associate Professor of Government Michael Franz noted the importance of former President Bill Clinton's oustpoken support for Mitchell at a rally in South Portland last Sunday. Franz, who has written extensively on political advertising, said, Mitchell has "been airing more contrasting ads lately where she sort of pits herself up against LePage...that could make a dent."
Franz and Potholm both cited the possibility of LePage's "rough" personality alienating voters late in the game.
Meet the candidates
LePage is a self-proclaimed "example of the American dream" with a controversial bent. He grew up as one of 18 children in a French-speaking household, but not for long: LePage was homeless on the streets of Lewiston from age 11 to 13. The longtime general manager of Marden's, a Maine surplus and salvage store with 14 locations, LePage boasts business smarts and a blue-collar appeal that seems to be packing a punch with Maine voters this season.
Though currently serving as mayor of Waterville, he is a marked political outsider with a penchant for controversy. At a Republican fishermen's forum in Brooksville, Maine last weekend, he announced: "As your governor, you're going to get to see a lot of me on the front page saying, 'Governor LePage tells Obama to go to hell.'"
In contrast to LePage's renegade appeal, his primary competitor—the polished and accomplished bureaucrat Libby Mitchell—comes with support from all sides of the Democratic establishment.
She has served for more than 30 years in the Maine legislature, nine terms in the House and three in the Senate, and most recently as the Senate president. Mitchell is the first woman to hold the position.
In addition to her work in the legislature, she has dedicated herself as a board member of numerous Maine health and education organizations.
Issue-driven
The number one issue on both candidates' minds is the economy. The difference lies in how they plan to fix it.
"Both LePage and Mitchell come from, respectively, the conservative and liberal wings of their parties. What you get from LePage is classic right-wing philosophy about smaller government, lower taxes, less regulation," Franz explained. "What you get from Mitchell is classic left-wing: government can solve problems, the wealthy should pay more, there should be better, more efficient regulation. So you're definitely seeing sort of polar opposites in terms of their vision for the future."
He noted that an issue tangential to that of "the economy and jobs" is "the size of the government in Augusta...and its budget responsibilities."
Bruce Poliquin, a candidate defeated in the GOP primary, agreed.
"Maine has created an incredibly expensive government we can't afford," he said in a phone interview Tuesday. He cited the "billion-dollar budget shortfall" as "the most difficult decision facing this government."
"Every two years, the state of Maine spends about $5.5 billion...the projections are that we have $1 billion less revenue than the spending that we've committed for. That is very scary," he said.
Though Poliquin lost to LePage in the primary, he is now working "full-time" for his fellow Republican and said he expects to head to Augusta to work on fiscal issues if LePage gets elected.
Potholm noted that the Democrats are going to have a harder time than usual.
"Usually at the end of the day...a majority of people say, 'Don't cut the services,'" he said. "This [year] may be different; the whole idea of the Tea Party group is that they want to cut government even if it means cutting services."
Poliquin said that Mitchell and the Democrats are "so vested in state government that they would never be able to change it."
Steve Robinson '11, a native Mainer, co-president of Bowdoin College Republicans, and the TA for Potholm's Maine Politics class, agreed. Robinson worked for defeated GOP candidate Peter Mills' campaign.
"Even Peter Mills...he had really fought for conservative policies in the legislature, but because he had been in the legislature this was somehow a mark against him."
Mitchell's campaign website says that she will tackle the bureaucracy in Augusta by "improving responsiveness, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness," rather than abandoning a government that "provides essential programs and services to families and businesses."
Mitchell sees "pushing education as a crucial aspect of getting jobs to Maine and keeping jobs in Maine," said Caitlin Callahan '11, co-president of the Bowdoin College Democrats.
Callahan cited Mitchell's initiatives in green job investment "because Maine is poised to be a leader in that field." According to Callahan, Mitchell knows that it is crucial for "Mainers [to be] prepared for an evolving job market. She wants to make Maine a place that is attractive for young people to stay or to come back and work."
Social issues have taken something of a backseat in light of the depressed economy. Franz spoke about ads run by Mitchell's campaign which focus on abortion and the environment.
"You might make the argument that that's sort of tactical mistake because voters are more interested in the economy this year anyway, than they are in energy policy and in social issues," he said.
The independents' race for third
Potholm said that November 2 will be "two elections at once," citing the race for governor between the Democrats and the Republicans and the race for the "favorite independent of this cycle." Eliot Cutler is polling at 9 percent, Shawn Moody at 5 percent and Kevin Scott at 0 percent.
"None of them have a chance of winning, I don't believe," said Potholm. About a third of Maine voters are independent.
"Cutler primarily draws from Mitchell, I think, and Moody will primarily end up drawing away from LePage."
The ex-Democrat Cutler is "pushing a moderate, pragmatic, level-headed approach," said Franz. Cutler's campaign, according to Potholm, has been "off-putting for a lot of people" due to a perceived sense of superiority. Though Cutler was boasting 14 percent support earlier in the month, according to the Rasmussen Report, he had dropped five points to 9 percent as of the Critical Insights report released Wednesday.
Shawn Moody started Moody's Collision Centers in 1977, an auto-body shop that now boasts five locations. Support for Moody has risen one point in the last 10 days. He is "a genuine businessman...[with] a good personality for politics," said Franz.
"As [Republican voters] know more about Moody they're going to say, 'Paul LePage sounds a little rough...this guy [Moody] sounds a little more like what I want.' And Moody doesn't have to get more than 10 percent to make it very hard for LePage to win," said Potholm.
Coming events
Libby Mitchell will visit Brunswick on October 7. She will attend an opening of the Brunswick Democratic Town Committee's office at 6 p.m.
Paul LePage is coming to town on October 13. He is presenting at the South Midcoast Maine Chamber Regional Breakfast at the Daniel Stone Inn, 10 Water Street.