Seventy six. That's the number of articles I counted when I visited the Orient archives after clicking on the link that was my name. I was absolutely flabbergasted, shocked and even a little bit embarrassed by the unexpected total, especially when I considered the collective amount of time I'd spent writing about professional sports throughout my Bowdoin career (it clocks in roughly at just over 300 hours, in case you were wondering). But so what if I have devoted nearly two weeks of college exclusively to sports writing? It's what I love to do. But I couldn't have done it without you, readers. Often, the best part of my day would be when one of you in passing would offer me a simple compliment about that week's article, which in turn fueled me to churn out an even better one the next week. So to all of you out there who have read my articles, and put up with my controversial claims, (sometimes) ludicrous predictions, as well as my nascent and continually bourgeoning love of soccer, I thank you; I won't forget your unwavering support. So before I graduate, here's number 77. And wherever I end up, you can bet your bottom dollar that I will continue to column like I see 'em.
The 2010 FIFA World Cup will kick off on June 11 at Soccer City in Johannesburg when host South Africa takes on Group A rival Mexico. It is the first time in the history of the world's most prestigious tournament that an African nation will host, which only adds to the overwhelmingly eager anticipation of hearing the commencing whistle sound. And for my fellow seniors and me, the situation we find ourselves in leading up to June 11 feels eerily familiar.
It was only four years ago when Germany hosted the World Cup mere days before my high school's graduation exercises. I knew very little about what lay ahead on the horizon for me, save the fact that I would be going to Bowdoin. Nearly half a decade later I find myself at a similar crossroads. I have no idea what the future holds, save that I will be entering the real world. And what better way to assist another hefty transition than watching the world's 32 best teams compete for global supremacy? Let's face it: it's possibly the best way to spend an awkward summer. So without further ado, my final two cents; They are, as follows, my 10 bold predictions for this summer's World Cup:
10. Safety first
The elephant in the room this year? Crime in South Africa and how it might affect the tournament. It is no secret that some parts of the country are more dangerous than others, and that fans will have to proceed with caution both in and out of each stadium, and pretty much wherever else they might visit. Though wouldn't that protocol apply to most nations, if not all of them? FIFA and the South African government are confident that fans will be safe so long as they remain alert and aware of their surroundings and use sound judgment in their decision-making. Call me a cockeyed optimist if you wish, but if each fan can do just that, there should be nothing to fear but the overwhelmingly vociferous buzzing of vuvuzelas. Here's to a safe tournament.
9. Winter of (dis)content
It's an issue that hasn't been as heavily discussed as one might have thought it would be, but just because it will be summer up here when the tournament commences, doesn't mean it will be the same season down there. That's not to say that we're going to see constant flurries, as South Africa experiences relatively mild winters in most regions, but it is still something to think about as the average temperature during Mother Nature's most frigid season throughout the country looks to be about 55øF. Certainly a playable climate, but still far from the typical warmth of summer; just how it affects each team remains to be seen.
8. African nations hold the advantage
It's true that no African team has ever hoisted the World Cup, but it's also true that no African nation has ever hosted the World Cup. That is, until this summer. South Africa will be joined by continental neighbors Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Algeria in its quest to bring glory to the world's second-largest continent for the first time. And make no mistake, each one of these teams will feel a competitive edge immediately playing on their home continent's soil. The rest of the pool will be forced to take note.
7. South Africa will become the first host country not to advance past the group stages
This kind of annuls my previous statement, but stay with me. Historically, the tournament's hosts have had great success competing in the World Cup, most notably in 2002 when South Korea (co-hosts that year with Japan) miraculously advanced all the way to the semifinals—the first Asian nation to do so—disposing of Italy and Spain in the process before eventually bowing out to runners up Germany. However, South Africa currently stands in at 90th in the FIFA rankings—the lowest-seeded World Cup host in history and the second-lowest-seeded team in this year's tournament (North Korea - 106). And while Bafana Bafana has shown flashes of brilliance, finishing fourth at last summer's Confederations Cup in a group that includes heavy-hitters Mexico, France and Uruguay, it appears that South Africa will have more than their work cut out for them. But never underestimate the power of home field advantage at the World Cup.
6. Marek Hams¡k will be the breakout player of the tournament
Wait a second...who? The 22-year-old midfielder will captain a youthfully exuberant Slovakia side that finished atop Group 3 in qualifying, trumping pesky foes Slovenia, Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, and Poland. Hams¡k has impressive vision and has an eye for the back of the net, having tallied 12 goals this campaign for Napoli—tied for 10th in Serie A with Francesco Totti, Samuel Eto'o, Alexandre Pato and Massimo Maccarone—who currently sit sixth in the table of Italy's top flight. Slovakia is set to compete in a winnable Group F with Italy, Paraguay and New Zealand, and should reach the knockout stages for the first time in history, and Hams¡k will be a big reason why.
5. Alter ego watch
Rule number one of soccer might as well say something like: just because a player performs well for club doesn't mean he will perform as well for country, and vice versa. While players like Michael Ballack (Germany/Chelsea), Lukas Podolski (Germany/1. FC K”ln) and Thierry Henry (France/Barcelona) have enjoyed more international success in recent years, the world's two greatest superstars in Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal/Real Madrid) and Lionel Messi (Argentina/Barcelona) have experienced quite the opposite. They have dazzled the eye and left all of us breathless with their swerving free-kicks and scintillating runs for their respective clubs, but now they'll both have to prove they have what it takes to replicate those performances on the international stage. Keep your eye on Eto'o as well. All the Cameroonian striker has done over the last two seasons is win. He captured an historic treble at Barcelona in 2009, and looks to be on the verge of doing the same at Inter Milan this year. And if the Indomitable Lions can somehow win it all in South Africa, that would make for a remarkable quadruple for Mr. Eto'o—7 major championships won in a span of two years.
4. Look out for Serbia
I need to wrap this up soon or else this will prove to be my longest article yet, but Beli Orlovi—the White Eagles—will be transformed into dark horses in South Africa. Their Group D with Germany, Australia and Ghana looks somewhat daunting, but definitely manageable, especially for a side that finished atop Group 7, qualifying ahead of gritty opponents France, Austria, Lithuania, and Romania. And if defense is the name of the game, the back four anchored by Cheslea's Branislav Ivanovic and Manchester United's Nemanja Vidic in the middle should prove to be one of the tournament's most effective backlines. The goals will come from Inter's Dejan Stankovic and Valencia's Nikola Zigic.
3. USA will beat England
June 12. Mark your calendars now, because that's when it's going to happen. And that's all I have to say on the matter (that doesn't mean I'm not nervous about the matchups against Slovenia and Algeria, though).
2. European championship drought away from home will continue
Believe it or not, no European team has ever won the World Cup when the tournament has been held off the continent. Spain, Germany, Netherlands, and holders Italy are the favorites, but when the dust settles on July 11, each of them is sure to come away empty handed because...
1. Brazil will win it all
It may not be a sexy pick, but that doesn't mean the Samba Kings won't play sexy soccer. Manager Dunga's side isn't a vintage one in that the usual suspects of Ronaldo, Adriano, and Ronaldinho are likely to be left off the final roster, but it's the same outfit that warmed up in South Africa last summer by winning the Confederations Cup, and a year later, they will capture an unprecedented sixth World Cup. Count on Robinho to score the most goals, and to win player of the tournament. And if he doesn't win the latter, then it'll almost definitely be Kaká.