While I do not claim to be an eminent predictor by any means (I'm pretty sure I picked the Mets to win the World Series this year), I do not consider myself to be an abomination to the field either (I'm pretty sure the title of one of my article's last year was "Why the Giants will win Super Bowl XLII"). However, when it comes to forecasting the NBA's regular/postseasons, for whatever reason, I struggle mercilessly. Just before I started writing this week's column, I went back in time?to the Orient archives, that is?to assess my two-year basketball-prediction portfolio.
And inexplicably, I discovered that I have a very big subconscious (although clearly quite conscious) crush on the Milwaukee Bucks. In my first year, I wrote that Michael Redd would win the scoring title and MVP (Michael Redd?), and last year wrote that the Bucks would be a dark horse (a horse?). But don't worry?I won't let my secret infatuation with them somehow seep into this year's issue. Mostly, because like the rest of my NBA predictions, they hardly ever come to fruition: "Kobe will be traded to the Wizards," "Ray Allen will get MVP," "The Suns will win the Finals," to name a few of the less embarrassing ones.
But this year is different; this year the sports gods have given me a break. Had I been at Bowdoin this semester and remained a weekly columnist, I would have probably written this article last week and stuffed it with each and every one of my fantastical prophecies. But you see, because I am in Spain, I only have to write one article every two weeks, which gives me ample time to discern the news I acquire via ESPN.com, and still formulate my sometimes nonsensical opinions.
Luckily for me, this season has already tipped off, so any preconceived notions that I had coming into this year (Greg Oden will be an unstoppable BEAST!) were immediately vanquished on opening night. Therefore, there is absolutely no reason as to why all 10 of these predictions below shouldn't come true. Except, of course, when you consider who's making them.
10. The Celtics won't repeat.
Oh, cry me a river, Boston. To be sure, last year was incredible. I remember. You remember. We all remember. But each of the Big Three are a year older, they've lost some of their cohesiveness in sharpshooter James Posey, and they will run up against resurgent foes that will be more determined to beat them than ever before (You think LeBron won't want a little revenge?).
They are still my favorite to win the East however, and even though back-to-back Finals appearances would drive me crazier than the first five episodes of "The Office" this seasons, watching their starting lineup introduction rerun with "Ayo Technology" blasting in the background is enough to appease any fan. That is, until it stops.
9. Marc Gasol will win Rookie of the Year.
In just his fourth professional game, Gasol exploded for 27 points and 16 rebounds with 3 blocks in a 90-79 win over the Warriors. The 7'1", 265 lb. center is already starting for a team that is one of the youngest in the game, and has created the illusion that his bro Pau never actually left the club.
8. New sounds in Salt Lake and Nola.
The Jazz and Hornets and their respective front offices figured out three or four years ago the recipe for success in the modern game: having an intelligent, pass-first point guard who can run, combined with athletic big men, who, too, can run... it also helps to have a shooter, which both clubs now have in Kyle Korver and James Posey. Of course, these two teams live and breathe under the leadership of Deron Williams and Chris Paul, who have become arguably the best two point guards in the game, not to mention the hungriest for success. Expect Utah and New Orleans to take a giant step forward into the ranks of the elite this season...if they haven't already done so.
7. Al Jefferson will become a household name.
Here's something I'm now ashamed to admit: I never thought that Jefferson would ever amount to much. He just seemed so incredibly average in his days with the Celtics, that when he was shipped off to Minneapolis in the KG trade, I don't think I expected to hear his name again anytime soon (I mean, how many players went to Minny in that deal? Nine?). How wrong I was.
AJ is becoming one of the most versatile power forwards in the league, and he's still only 23 years old. One columnist even had him inside his top 25 players list, and with numbers like 22.3 and 12.3 (1.5 blocks, too), I don't see how anyone could leave him off of any list. Maybe Kevin McHale knew was he was doing after all.
6. People will come to like the Oklahoma City logo.
I don't think I've ever heard more complaints about a sports insignia? but why? Do you know how hard it is to draw THUNDER?! I'll give you a blank piece of paper and some crayons so you can try your own hand at it for five minutes, and when you come back with a lightning bolt etched upon the page, I'll call you an idiot. Trust me: you'll learn to like the logo, because it was the best they could have done...idiot.
5. Richard Jefferson will be the missing piece in Milwaukee.
There's just something about those Milwaukee Buc?I mean...never mind.
4. The Iverson experiment will fail
Boy, Joe Dumars must really be sick of winning. Why else would he decide to give away the cornerstone of their franchise, Chauncey Billups, away for the worst teammate this side of Kobe in Allen Iverson?
If anything has been clear throughout the former Hoya's Hall-of-Fame career, it is that very few, if any, can play alongside him. It's what first ran him out of Philly, and now Denver. To be sure, Detroit will still make the playoffs, but won't be that same perennial threat in the spring that we are now so accustomed to seeing. For the Nuggets, this was a steal.
3. Amaré will win MVP.
By far the most athletic big man in the league, the 25-year-old Stoudemire is only beginning to come into his prime. And with Shaq's presence to remove pressure down low, not to mention the lingering craftiness of veteran Steve Nash that will still create plays to run specifically through No. 1, the 2003 Rookie of the Year will earn his first MVP in just his seventh season.
2. The Spurs will win the Finals.
I was mistaken last year when I picked them, but that was only because I did not take their championship-every-other-year pattern into account. I'm not quite sure how this team managed only one win in last year's Western Conference Finals against the Lakers (Let's be honest: Brent Barry was definitely fouled on that play), but rest assured, Gregg Popovich will have the league's most experienced squad even more prepared this time around. It will also help if Tony Parker continues to drop 55 a night; and if it wasn't before, his emblazonment on the cover of NBA Live 09 is now more than justified.
1. The Knicks will make the playoffs.
You didn't think I could go a whole NBA preview without this one did you? The way Mike D'Antoni and Donnie Walsh have handled the Stephon Marbury situation is both baffling and irresponsible. While I have never been a fan of the belligerent point guard, it does not take away from the fact that he is still the best player on the team...and he's not playing.
Surely, New York has a much better chance of winning games with Starbury running the point, rather than Chris Duhon. But D'Antoni says he isn't playing for now, he's playing for the future. Well thanks a lot, Mike. I can't think of a more unfavorable decision. Who plays for now anyway? And ironically, Marbury has handled all of this with patience and class...class! I for one hope he starts playing again soon, but it really won't make a whole lot of difference as the Knicks will miss the playoffs once again. I almost miss Zeke...okay, that's a HUGE lie.