Predicting the Champions League semifinals

The relegation zone: The downward spiral of once-proud Parma

After a 10-minute hearing in Italian court last week, Parma F.C., with it’s outstanding debt estimated at nearly 200 million euros, was declared bankrupt. This means that for all intents and purposes, the club is dead. Long live Parma.
For a club that collected four European trophies and four additional Italian trophies in the late 1990s and early 2000s while swashbuckling around the pitch in its blue and yellow striped kits emblazoned with the logo of dairy giant and club benefactor Parmalat, the fall from grace has been swift.
I'm left with this question: How could a comfortable member of European football’s middle class burn through three different owners in the past six months and ultimately end up in bankruptcy court?
The Parma story starts with Parmalat, which bankrolled the team through its glory days. On the back of the vast dairy money, Parma seemed secure as a member of the Italian top flight, with aspirations to challenge traditional Serie A giants like Juventus. When Parmalat imploded during a massive financial fraud scandal in 2004, Parma was declared insolvent before being bought by Tommaso Ghiradi.
Under Ghiradi, Parma found mixed success on the pitch, but qualified for European competition as recently as last season with a sixth place league finish. While it was not claiming UEFA Cup titles, the club seemed to have stabilized after its financial struggles.
The first cracks in the façade appeared when UEFA kicked the club out of this season’s Europa League for an unpaid tax bill. Ghiradi chalked the issue up to a clerical mistake rather than underlying financial issues.
He proved to be a poor liar though, as the depths of the club’s financial struggles were revealed over the following months.
Players haven’t been paid since August and are now forced to do their own laundry and drive the team bus to matches. Meanwhile, the club has had to cancel home matches because it quite literally can’t keep the stadium lights on. The youth team can’t even afford water bottles.
In December, Ghiradi sold the team for a single euro, passing on its debts to a Cypriot-Russian company, which promptly sold it—again for a euro—in February to Giampietro Manenti, a Milanese businessman. Manenti promised to pay off debts, including back wages for the players. His failure to do so, culminated in Parma’s day in court. Manenti was arrested on money laundering and embezzlement charges last week.
After the bankruptcy ruling, Parma looks doomed. The club has already received an emergency loan from the other clubs in Serie A in order to complete its season. Unless a financial backer steps forward to buy the team and pay off the massive debts, the club will dissolve at the season’s end, forced to start again under a new name in the lowest professional tier in Italy.
It’s hard to assess blame for Parma’s demise without laying the bulk ofit at Tommaso Ghiradi’s feet. When he bought the club before the 2006-2007 season, Parma’s gross debt was estimated at 16.1 million euros, a substantial amount, but relatively insignificant in comparison to debt at other football clubs. Under his watch, the debt ballooned to its current levels.
Since the Parmalat bankruptcy, the club has clearly spent beyond its means. By my count, it has over 150 players on its books, an absolutely massive amount, with most out on loan throughout Europe. For comparison, Chelsea, a club notorious for snapping up young talents then sending them out on loan, has about 50 players on its books.
The problem though is also an institutional squeezing of the football middle class, especially in leagues like Serie A and Spain’s La Liga. The biggest problem is the massively inequitable split in TV revenues in those leagues, with the vast majority of the money going to a few titans like Real Madrid, Juventus and Barcelona. This stands in stark comparison to the relatively even split in the Premier League. Clubs from smaller areas face other issues as well.
They can’t depend on large ticket revenues and therefore have to spend outside their means to challenge for titles.
Parma’s tale is a tragedy, but it’s not entirely uncommon, especially in Italy, where corruption and shoddy management seem inexplicably linked with football. Fiorentina and Napoli both underwent similar deaths in the early 2000s and have since returned to competitiveness in both the Serie A and Europe.
Outside of Italy, storied clubs like Glasgow Rangers, Leeds United and Portsmouth F.C have “died” and been resurrected, although they have yet to reach their prior heights. So while Parma certainly seems dead and gone now, there remains a sliver of hope for its future.

The relegation zone: Jurgen Klopp and Dortmund’s future

Amidst a dismal season in Dortmund, Jürgen Klopp, the charismatic manager who brought Borussia Dortmund (BVB) out of the wilderness and back amongst Europe’s elites, announced his plans to step down at the end of the season after seven years at the football club. By resigning, Klopp leaves large looming questions about the club’s future, while setting himself up as the hottest managerial commodity in soccer. When Klopp arrived from Mainz in 2008, Dortmund was far from its past heights. Teetering near bankruptcy in the mid-2000s, the club suffered on the field as a result of player transfers and payroll cuts, finishing seventh, ninth and 13th in the Bundesliga in the three seasons immediately preceding Klopp’s appointment. Klopp brought a charisma and energy to BVB, manifested best by his roster, which was restocked with young talent like Mario Götze, Mats Hummels and Robert Lewandowski, and the team’s counterpressing system, a style not unlike Barcelona’s. After winning back possession though, Klopp’s team serves as sort of the antithesis to the methodical tiki-taka passing of Guardiola’s Barca, setting up lightning quick, direct attacks, that are exhausting but simultaneously exhilarating and beautiful. For a time, it was also incredibly successful. Dortmund climbed out of mid-table anonymity in 2008 to back-to-back league titles in 2010/11 and 2011/12, including the double of the league and DFB-Pokal, the German equivalent of England’s FA Cup, in 2012. While the team fell short of three consecutive titles, it made it to the Champions League Final in 2013 before falling to bitter rival Bayern Munich. Success comes at a price, though. Bayern pilfered and modified the counterpress to suit its skilled passing game. In its 2013 season, Bayern won three trophies, including the Champions League title, then went on to poach Götze and Lewandowski from BVB in consecutive years. This season, Dortmund, hampered by injuries, was bottom of the table midway through the campaign. After stringing together recent wins, BVB has climbed to ninth, but will certainly miss out on next year’s Champions League. Thus, the Klopp era at Dortmund ends not with a league title, but a whimper. As a replacement, Dortmund is set to bring in Thomas Tuchel, who, like Klopp, was the manager at Mainz before taking the Dortmund job. Tuchel is regarded as a brilliant tactical mind, and for good reason. At Mainz, his teams have effortlessly switched between formations and different play styles not just from match to match but within matches as well. Perhaps his most successful tactical scheme is the transition from a high press in an attempt to win back possession, to a lower-stacked defensive line, content to sit back and absorb pressure. Switching between the two distinct defensive structures can catch the opposition off guard, and it provides the flexibility necessary to counter different playing styles. Tuchel’s tactical acumen and flexibility alone should breathe fresh air into a squad that has looked stifled at times this season by Klopp’s one-dimensional style. Klopp’s departure also raises important questions about the future of the roster. Captain Mats Hummels has been heavily linked to Manchester United for a summer move. Marco Reus, for my money one of the most exciting players in the game, has also been heavily rumored to be leaving this summer. With Klopp leaving, it will be interesting to see if Dortmund’s stars follow suit. Already swirling are the potential landing spots for Klopp, who will undoubtedly be linked to every high profile opening, especially in England, where he’s expressed interest in managing next. He’s been mentioned as the frontrunner for the Manchester City job, amidst rumors that Manuel Pellegrini will be sacked after a very disappointing season defending City’s Premier League title. City is in dire need of a retool, with one of the oldest and most expensive squads in England, and Pellegrini is a likely casualty of any rebuild. A more likely destination, should it choose to move on from Brendan Rodgers, is Liverpool. It’s not that Rodgers has been awful—his squad was within a Steven Gerrard slip of the title last year—but his transfers have been questionable, and Liverpool’s top-four chase is quickly losing steam after the team was flattened by Arsenal and United in recent weeks. It’s hard to imagine Liverpool sticking with Rodgers should Klopp express interest in the position. Klopp is a charismatic manager who thrives on emotion. A packed Anfield singing “You’ll Never Walk Alone” seems a much better fit for him than the new money of Manchester City. For that, a job like Liverpool seems a more realistic next step for Klopp.

The relegation zone

Predicting the Champions League semifinals

This piece represents the opinion of the author:

April 10, 2015

While the race for places in next year’s Champions League heats up in Europe’s domestic leagues, the quarterfinals of this season’s competition are set to kick off next week. The round of 16 saw continued English futility as Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea all got bounced—the latter two in ties they probably should’ve won. Hipster darlings Borussia Dortmund also exited the tournament.

I unpacked my crystal ball to predict the teams who will move one step closer to being crowned European champions.

On Tuesday afternoon, Italian champions Juventus will meet “the dullest team in Ligue 1,” Monaco, in Turin. Juve flew past Dortmund in the Round of 16, cruising 5-1 on aggregate. The team from the Principality squeaked past Arsenal on away goals after a 3-3 aggregate draw, but was especially impressive in a 3-1 win at the Emirates in London in the first leg.

Perhaps more than any of the other ties, this matchup will pit fiercely clashing styles against each other. Monaco hasn’t earned the “dull” moniker for nothing; the team is quite content to sit back and absorb pressure and then attempt to score on the counter, a tactic it employed to devastating effect in the first leg against Arsenal.

Juventus, on the other hand, thrives with possession, allowing its world-class playmaking midfielders like Pirlo and Paul Pogba to break down defenses and set up incisive finishers like Carlos Tevez. This season is probably the Old Lady’s best opportunity for European glory before Pirlo retires and Pogba moves to greener pastures in England or Spain. Juventus will cruise past Monaco and into the semifinals.

Tuesday’s other match is a Madrid derby between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, a rematch of last season’s Champions League Final, where Real triumphed in extra time to claim its 10th European title. Despite its high-octane attack, Real looked vulnerable in the last round, squeaking past Schalke 5-4 on aggregate. Atletico wasn’t much better, only advancing past Bayer Leverkeusen after a dire penalty shootout.

Despite Real’s flashy names and history, Diego Simeone’s men seem to have their crosstown rival’s number. Atletico humbled Ronaldo and Real with a 4-0 victory the last time the two met, and has lost its their last 6 derbies, dating back to last year’s final. With 52 total yellow cards in those six matches, the tie will be a physical affair, with Atletico looking to impose its will physically at the back and in the midfield to counter Real’s skill.

Atletico has skill of its own though; forward Antoine Griezmann is one of the most underrated players in Spain and will prove the difference on the counterattack as Atleti continues its recent stranglehold on the Madrid derby and advances into the semis.

Wednesday sees Bayern Munich, the 2013 European champs, take on FC Porto in Portugal. Bayern demolished Shaktar Donetsk 7-0 to advance, while Porto had a similarly easy time, defeating Basel 5-1. The two sides met in the 1987 European Cup Final, a 2-1 Porto triumph.

Bayern should have no trouble advancing past a pesky Porto side. The Portuguese squad’s only real hope is to get up early in the first leg, as Bayern will be electric in the return at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Porto has class up front in Jackson Martinez and Christian Tello and creativity in the midfield with Yacine Brahimi. That trio will need to be on top of its game to give Porto a fighting chance. Although recovering from a torn ab muscle, Arjen Robben is having one of the best years of his career; he and Bayern’s variety of other weapons should have no trouble providing the firepower to advance.

In probably the most intriguing matchup, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) meets FC Barcelona on Wednesday afternoon. PSG advanced in a thrilling match with Chelsea, coming from behind twice despite being down a man for over 90 minutes. Barca dispatched of Manchester City with relative ease, winning 3-1 on aggregate.

All the oil money in the world hasn’t been able to buy PSG European success yet, as this is the team’s first time in the quarterfinals since the Qatari takeover that propelled them into European soccer’s financial elite, but Laurent Blanc’s squad will be eager to show that it has exorcised its Champions League demons with its gutsy triumph over Chelsea.

PSG’s laundry list of injuries and suspensions will make that difficult. Talismanic striker Zlatan Ibrahimović is suspended for the first leg, as is Marco Verratti, the key cog in the PSG midfield and one of the best young players in Europe. David Luiz and Thiago Motta are both injured and will miss the match. PSG’s best chance is to dictate the game in the midfield and keep the ball away from Barca’s forward line of Messi, Neymar and Suarez. While the teams met twice and split their matches in the group stage, smart money is on the Catalans, as PSG is too banged up to contain Barca over two legs.

The return of the Champions League means another chance to watch Europe’s best on display. Barcelona, Juventus, Atletico, and Bayern will continue their respective quests for European glory and advance to the semifinals.

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